For over a decade, Xi Jinping has been the face of an authoritative and centralized power structure in China. The man who once reshaped the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), crushed dissent with an iron grip, and removed presidential term limits to potentially rule for life, now appears to be retreating from his position of absolute power. Is Xi Jinping preparing to step back? Could China soon see a new president? Is this the beginning of the end of Xi’s era or just another calculated political move?

The roots of Xi's dominance trace back to 2012, when he first took over as General Secretary of the Communist Party. By becoming President and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi consolidated almost all aspects of state power under his leadership. He soon launched China’s most massive anti-corruption campaign, punishing over a million officials and top military generals, further cementing his control.

In 2018, Xi went a step further by amending the constitution to remove the two-term limit for the presidency, effectively paving the way to remain in power indefinitely. This act symbolized not just political dominance but the formal declaration of a one-man rule in modern-day China.

However, recent developments have raised eyebrows among China watchers. For the first time in over a decade, Xi seems to be sharing authority. On June 30, during a key Politburo meeting, new rules were introduced that delegate powers to various institutions within the Party. These new guidelines point towards a move from one-man dominance to a model of collective leadership.

The big question is: why now?

Is this merely an administrative decision to streamline governance, or does it indicate that Xi Jinping is preparing for a slow and strategic withdrawal from daily leadership? Dissident communities outside China and experts like Victor Shih from the University of California believe that Xi is now focusing more on policy-level decisions, gradually handing over operational control to other leaders. This suspicion grew stronger when Xi Jinping chose not to attend the BRICS Summit in Brazil—marking the first time he has missed such a key multilateral event.

Could this be the beginning of a carefully managed exit?

Several underlying factors may be pressuring Xi into a transition. China’s economy is showing signs of significant strain. The ongoing trade war with the United States has affected exports worth nearly $440 billion. The real estate sector, once a growth engine, is collapsing. Xi’s strict zero-COVID policy resulted in severe lockdowns, disrupting industries and businesses across the country. On top of this, tight government control over corporations and rising youth unemployment have dented the country’s economic momentum.

Since Xi’s political legitimacy is closely tied to China’s economic rise, a declining economy may be forcing him to reconsider his position. Analysts believe that the shift towards collective leadership might be a part of Xi’s long-term plan to step back gracefully before conditions worsen further.

Looking ahead, 2027 will be a pivotal year. That’s when the next Communist Party Congress will take place, marking the end of Xi Jinping’s third term. It’s also being seen as a potential turning point for leadership change in China. Speculation is rife that Xi may be grooming a successor or preparing for a ceremonial exit to protect his legacy and avoid internal power struggles.

This leadership uncertainty has deep implications for India and the broader geopolitical landscape. Xi has been the face of China’s assertive foreign policy—whether in the Indo-Pacific region, on the contentious India-China border, in BRICS negotiations, or in global trade diplomacy. If leadership changes in China, it could alter the nature of India-China relations. It might open up opportunities for dialogue or, conversely, fuel instability that could further strain ties.

In summary, Xi Jinping, once the undisputed emperor of modern China, is now seemingly distributing power. Whether this marks the end of an era or is just a smokescreen hiding deeper strategies remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: change is in the air in Beijing.

Disclaimer: This article is based on current observations, expert opinions, and publicly available sources. Political developments, especially in authoritarian regimes, are complex and can rapidly change. Interpretations should be made cautiously.