U.S. President Donald Trump has made a bold claim, stating that his tariff policy forced India to stop purchasing oil from Russia. The remark comes shortly after Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. While the high-profile meeting was officially described as “positive,” it yielded no breakthrough on achieving a ceasefire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Following the meeting, Trump gave an interview where he asserted that Russia had lost one of its largest oil customers — India. According to Trump, India was sourcing nearly 40% of its oil from Russia, but due to U.S. tariffs, New Delhi had now stopped imports. He even suggested that imposing secondary sanctions would have been “catastrophic” for Russia.

However, real-time global data tells a very different story.

India’s Russian Oil Imports Rising, Not Falling

According to data from analytics firm Kpler, India imported about 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in the first half of August 2025. This is a significant increase compared to July, when imports stood at 1.6 million bpd. In fact, Russia’s share of India’s total crude imports in early August was 38%, out of roughly 5.2 million bpd.

Instead of halting imports, India has actually increased its purchases from Russia. At the same time, imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia have declined. Crude oil imports from Iraq fell to 730,000 bpd in August from 907,000 bpd in July, while imports from Saudi Arabia dropped from 700,000 bpd to 526,000 bpd.

Meanwhile, the United States remained only the fifth-largest supplier of crude to India, with around 264,000 bpd.

Kpler’s lead research analyst Sumit Rathodlia noted that India’s Russian crude oil imports have remained stable in August despite Trump’s tariff announcement at the end of July. This is because August deliveries were already contracted in June and early July. Any real impact of U.S. measures, he said, would only be visible in shipments arriving from late September to October.

India’s Energy Dependence and Russian Oil Strategy

India is the world’s third-largest consumer of oil, importing nearly 88% of its crude needs. Until 2021, most of India’s oil imports came from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, while Russia accounted for less than 1%.

That changed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Western sanctions, particularly by the U.S. and Europe, cut Moscow out of its traditional energy markets. To stay afloat, Russia turned to Asia, offering steep discounts on crude oil.

India seized the opportunity. From under 1% in 2021, Russian oil’s share in India’s import basket surged to 35-36% by 2023. During the 2022-23 financial year, India bought an estimated $42–44 billion worth of Russian oil, saving nearly $13 billion thanks to discounts of $18–20 per barrel.

Not only did India benefit from cheap oil, but it also refined Russian crude into petroleum products like petrol and diesel and exported them to Europe and G7 nations — essentially creating a profitable middle ground for itself while Russia secured a steady buyer.

The Geopolitical Tug-of-War

The dispute over Russian oil is now at the heart of a geopolitical struggle involving Washington, Moscow, and New Delhi. While the U.S. is pressuring India to scale down its Russian imports, Moscow is determined to retain India as one of its biggest customers after China. India, meanwhile, is walking a fine line, trying to balance energy security, economic interests, and geopolitical relationships.

Trump’s latest remarks about India abandoning Russian oil appear inconsistent with hard import data. Instead of dropping Russian crude, India’s imports have risen, even as U.S. tariffs and threats of secondary sanctions loom in the background.

The coming months will be crucial. By September and October, the world will see whether India alters its oil sourcing strategy under American pressure or continues to deepen its energy partnership with Russia.

Disclaimer:
This article is based on publicly available data, media reports, and research insights. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment, financial, or geopolitical advice. Readers are encouraged to verify facts independently before drawing conclusions.