Mumbai, September 22, 2025 – Adani Green Energy Ltd. (ADANIGREEN), India’s largest renewable energy company, has witnessed a sharp rebound in its stock price, rising 13% over the past two sessions. The surge comes as a relief rally after months of pressure, triggered by a combination of regulatory clearance, strong earnings, and renewed optimism in India’s renewable sector.

The stock hit an intraday high of ₹1,177 on the NSE today, an 16% rise from Friday’s close of ₹1,030.70, before settling at ₹1,074, up 4.2% for the day. This followed a 5% jump on September 19, extending its two-day gain to 13%. Despite this momentum, Adani Green remains down over 60% from its 52-week peak of ₹2,091 in June 2024, raising questions for investors on whether this is a genuine turnaround or just a short-term spike.

Why the Sudden Surge?

The rally is driven by three major triggers – a clean regulatory verdict, solid quarterly earnings, and brokerage upgrades supported by sector tailwinds.

SEBI’s Clean Chit: On September 18, SEBI concluded its probe into allegations by U.S.-based short-seller Hindenburg Research, which had accused Adani Group companies of stock manipulation and related-party violations in 2023. The verdict gave a clean slate to Gautam Adani, Rajesh Adani, and group companies including Adani Green, with no evidence of wrongdoing and no penalties imposed. The closure of this case has lifted investor sentiment, sparking heavy buying across the group. Since Thursday, Adani Group firms have collectively added ₹2-3 lakh crore in market capitalization. Adani Green, being a high-beta renewable stock, amplified these gains alongside Adani Power (up 20%) and Adani Total Gas (up 17%).

Market chatter on X (formerly Twitter) reflected euphoria, with posts like “Adani Green circuit-locked at 10%—multibagger ahead!” and “SEBI clean chit = 90% upside to ₹2,100.” Trading volumes were three times the average, pointing to renewed institutional interest.

Strong Q1FY26 Earnings: Earlier this month, Adani Green reported a 60% year-on-year jump in net profit to ₹713 crore from ₹446 crore and a 36% revenue growth to ₹3,741 crore. Power sales revenue rose 31% to ₹3,312 crore. The company benefits from the stability of long-term PPAs, with 70% of its capacity locked at fixed tariffs. Operational capacity reached 16 GW, with additional solar projects of 87.5 MW at Khavda going live on September 8. Management reaffirmed plans to add 5 GW in FY26, with a long-term target of 50 GW by 2030.

Brokerage Upgrades and Sector Tailwinds: Jefferies upgraded its target price to ₹1,400, a 27% upside from current levels, citing the stock’s steep discount from its 2023 peak on EV/EBITDA multiples. They forecast 4.5 GW additions in FY26 and 6.3 GW in FY27. Favorable policy moves, including a GST cut on solar modules from 12% to 5% and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent launch of a 200 MW Khavda solar project, have fueled investor enthusiasm in green energy stocks. Promoter confidence has also been visible, with their stake rising to 61.9% in June 2025 from 60.9%, supported by warrant exercises at ₹1,480 per share, above current levels.

Lingering Concerns Despite Rally

Even after the recent rebound, Adani Green shares are still down nearly 49% year-to-date and 48.6% over the past 12 months. This sharp underperformance compared to peers like NTPC Green (up 10%) highlights persistent risks.

One major overhang is the unresolved U.S. Department of Justice probe. In February 2025, the DoJ alleged a ₹2,200 crore bribery scandal linked to solar contracts. Although the case has been put on hold following an executive order by U.S. President Donald Trump, investors remain wary of potential penalties or delays.

Debt levels are another concern. Adani Green’s net debt stands at ₹80,000 crore, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 8.5x. Interest costs consumed 49% of Q1 revenues, and the company has not declared dividends despite consistent profits.

Valuations also look stretched, with the stock trading at 102x trailing twelve-month earnings compared to a sector average of 20x, and 13.4x book value. Research platform WalletInvestor has flagged it as a high-risk bet, projecting a possible decline to ₹791 over the next year, a 26% downside from current levels.

Analyst Views: Buy or Avoid?

Market experts remain divided on Adani Green’s prospects.

The bullish camp points to its strong execution, sector tailwinds, and capacity pipeline. The company is targeting the world’s largest renewable park at Khavda, with 30 GW capacity planned by 2029. EBITDA growth of 22% in Q1 signals operational efficiency. India’s push for 500 GW renewable capacity by 2030, alongside steady FII inflows (currently 11.6% stake), strengthens the long-term case. Price targets vary, with Jefferies suggesting ₹1,400 in the short term and long-term bulls eyeing ₹2,100, nearly double from current levels.

On the bearish side, critics argue that excessive leverage and legal uncertainties make it a risky bet. Compared to peers like Suzlon, which has surged 150% this year with far less debt, Adani Green’s high premium valuations appear unsustainable unless profits grow at 20% or more annually.

Key Metrics Snapshot

• P/E Ratio: 102x vs. sector average 20x (overvalued short-term)
• Debt-to-Equity: 8.5x vs. 2-3x sector norm (high leverage risk)
• ROE: 15% vs. 12% sector average (strong profitability)
• Target Upside: 27%–90% (analyst estimates)

Bottom Line

The recent 13% surge in Adani Green is more of a sentiment reset than a full turnaround. Long-term investors who believe in India’s green energy story may consider buying on dips below ₹1,000 with a 2–3 year horizon. Short-term traders can play the momentum with tight stop-losses around ₹1,060. Much hinges on clarity around the U.S. DoJ probe, which could be the next big trigger for the stock.

As one trader summed it up on X: “Adani Green: From Hindenburg ashes to solar phoenix?”

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, based on public sources including Economic Times, Moneycontrol, NSE data, Jefferies reports, and social media trends. It does not constitute investment advice. Investors should consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making any decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.