As the Bihar Assembly elections conclude, political heat and market speculation are both at their peak. Polling officially ended today at 5 PM, and soon after, major exit polls started rolling out their projections. The much-anticipated results are set to be declared on November 14, but exit polls have already given a strong indication of the likely outcome — a comfortable majority for the NDA alliance led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the BJP.
Before we dive into the numbers, a key disclaimer: exit polls are not final results. They are based on post-voting surveys and serve as estimates of possible outcomes. History has shown that exit polls can sometimes be off by a wide margin, but they still offer valuable insights into the direction the political wind might be blowing.
Record-Breaking Voter Turnout in Bihar
In 2020, Bihar recorded a total voter turnout of 57.29%. This year, voter enthusiasm was notably higher.
- Phase 1 turnout: Over 65%
- Overall turnout (as of 5 PM): 67.14%
This marks a significant jump, crossing the 60% mark comfortably. The high turnout reflects strong voter engagement and possibly a close contest on the ground.
Bihar’s Power Equation: 243 Seats, 122 for Majority
The Bihar Legislative Assembly has 243 seats, and any party or alliance needs 122 seats to form a majority government.
The main political battle remains between:
- NDA (National Democratic Alliance) – primarily comprising JD(U) and BJP under Nitish Kumar’s leadership.
- MGB (Mahagathbandhan) – the Grand Alliance led by RJD, Congress, and Left parties.
- Others – smaller regional parties and independents, who are expected to play a marginal role according to early estimates.
Exit Polls: All Major Surveys Predict NDA Victory
Let’s look at the major exit polls conducted by leading agencies:
1. JVC Exit Poll
- NDA: 135 – 150 seats
- MGB: 88 – 103 seats
- Others: Negligible
The JVC poll clearly suggests that the NDA will return to power with a comfortable majority, crossing the 122-seat mark easily.
2. Matterise Exit Poll
- NDA: 147 – 167 seats
- MGB: Below 100 seats
Another poll reinforcing the NDA’s dominance, suggesting even stronger performance for the ruling alliance.
3. People’s Insight
- NDA: 122+ seats
- MGB: 87 – 102 seats
Once again, a decisive edge for the NDA, though a slightly narrower range compared to others.
4. People’s Pulse
- NDA: 122+ seats
- MGB: 75 – 101 seats
This poll predicts a comfortable margin for NDA, with MGB failing to reach even 110 seats.
5. Dainik Bhaskar Exit Poll
- NDA: 145 – 160 seats
- MGB: 70 – 90 seats
One of India’s largest media networks also sees a clear mandate for NDA, making it one of the strongest projections in their favor.
Polls of Polls: NDA Leads with 148 Seats on Average
A combined average or polls of polls projection based on these top five agencies shows the following:
- NDA: 148 seats
- MGB: 88 seats
- Others: 7 seats
This aggregate suggests a clear NDA victory, indicating that Nitish Kumar is likely to retain his position as Chief Minister with the support of the BJP-led alliance.
Even when analyzing 11 different exit polls, all of them predict NDA’s lead — with the lowest projected count being 130 seats for NDA. On the other hand, Mahagathbandhan’s best-case scenario across these polls reaches only 108 seats, still short of the majority mark.
Market Reaction: GIFT Nifty Stays Calm Despite Political Buzz
Turning to the financial markets, investors appear to be largely unfazed by the exit poll results. The GIFT Nifty remained flat and steady following the release of the exit polls, showing neither major enthusiasm nor panic.
This calm reaction can be explained by a simple principle that investors often refer to:
CG + SG = Market Comfort
(Where CG stands for Central Government and SG stands for State Government)
When the same political alliance governs both the center and the state, the market tends to favor such stability as it minimizes political friction and ensures policy continuity.
Currently, the Central Government is led by the NDA, and if the Bihar state government also remains under NDA rule, markets typically interpret it as a positive outcome for governance and economic coordination.
However, traders seem to be adopting a wait-and-watch stance until the official results on November 14.
What Lies Ahead?
The key takeaway is that all major exit polls indicate a return of the NDA government in Bihar, with the Mahagathbandhan trailing significantly in every projection.
That said, exit polls have sometimes been unreliable — as seen in past elections where the final outcomes diverged sharply from projections. The real picture will only emerge on Friday, November 14, when the Election Commission of India announces the official results.
As of now, the political sentiment favors the NDA, and the market sentiment remains neutral but stable.
Final Thoughts
The Bihar 2025 exit polls suggest that Nitish Kumar’s leadership, backed by the BJP, has likely retained public trust. While high voter turnout indicates strong participation, it has not translated into uncertainty in the stock markets, which remain largely calm.
Whether the exit polls hold true or get disproved will be known soon. Until then, both political analysts and investors await Friday’s final results with keen anticipation.
