The World Trade Organization (WTO) has slashed its outlook for 2025, now expecting global merchandise trade to decline by 0.2%, a stark contrast to the +2.7% growth projected earlier this year. This follows a modest +2.9% growth in 2024, signaling a troubling turn in momentum.

North America Braces for Impact

The biggest blow is expected to land in North America, where trade volumes are set to suffer the most. Meanwhile, Asia and Europe are expected to maintain modest growth—but it's a far cry from the global expansion we've grown used to.

Tariff Tensions: A Ticking Clock

Adding fuel to the fire is the potential for new tariffs. The WTO warns that if the United States reimposes higher reciprocal tariffs after a 90-day pause, global merchandise trade could plummet by 1.5% this year. The world is watching Washington closely.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Even the long-term picture is getting murkier. The WTO now projects +2.5% trade growth in 2026, down from the previously anticipated +2.9%. Not exactly a strong rebound.

Even the long-term picture is getting murkier. The WTO now projects +2.5% trade growth in 2026, down from the previously anticipated +2.9%. Not exactly a strong rebound.

The Bigger Picture

We’re witnessing a historic slowdown in global trade—a system long considered the backbone of global economic growth. As protectionism rises and economic uncertainty grows, the future of global trade looks less certain than ever.